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What is a 'nowcast' of inflation?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Does inflation nowcasting outperform Survey estimates?

While nowcasting errors have increased in absolute size since the onset of the pandemic, our inflation nowcasting model has tended to outperform survey estimates even during this recent period.

Do CPI inflation nowcasts change?

Nowcasts of core CPI inflation are based on past core CPI inflation only; thus, the nowcasts change only when new monthly CPI data are released (or when past data are revised). If the data come in exactly as expected, then the core CPI inflation nowcasts will not change.

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